J.P. Morgan Economist Raises U.S. Recession Risk to 40%

Bruce Kasman, J.P. Morgan’s chief global economist, has expressed heightened concern about the U.S. economy, raising the probability of a recession in 2025 to 40%, up from his earlier 30% estimate. Speaking to reporters in Singapore, Kasman maintained J.P. Morgan’s current forecast of 2% GDP growth but warned this could deteriorate significantly if President Trump’s threatened reciprocal tariffs materialize in April, potentially pushing recession risk to 50% or higher. His concerns align with broader economic sentiment, as 95% of economists surveyed across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico believe Trump’s tariff policies have increased recession risks.

Other major investment banks have already downgraded their forecasts, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley now projecting just 1.7% and 1.5% U.S. growth respectively. Beyond immediate economic impacts, Kasman cautioned that the administration’s approach could undermine long-established trust in U.S. markets and institutions, potentially damaging America’s standing as an investment destination.