XAU/USD Approaches $5,000 After Largest Weekly Range on Record

Gold is starting the new trading week on Sunday, January 25, 2026, hovering just below the psychological $5,000 level as markets wait for the Asian session to reopen. As of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,988, after briefly touching highs close to $4,990, capping one of the most explosive weeks in gold’s modern trading history.

The past week marked a structural shift rather than a routine breakout. Gold recorded its largest weekly price range on record, closing firmly above prior resistance and extending a rally that has accelerated sharply since the start of 2026. Attention now turns to how price behaves around the $5,000 threshold as liquidity returns with Asia, setting the tone for the week ahead.

Gold Posts Record Weekly Range as Bulls Press Toward $5,000

The week just ended will likely be remembered as a defining moment in the current gold bull market. XAU/USD advanced aggressively throughout the week, stretching well beyond prior consolidation zones and confirming upside momentum across daily and weekly timeframes.

At the same time, silver surged beyond $103 per ounce, reinforcing the strength of the broader precious metals complex and signalling sustained risk-on positioning within hard assets.

This type of price behaviour typically reflects a strong shift in positioning, where pullbacks are shallow and quickly absorbed. With Asia set to reopen, traders will be watching closely to see whether fresh demand emerges above $4,980 or whether price pauses briefly below $5,000 to consolidate gains.

Why Gold Is Surging: Geopolitics, Dollar Pressure, and Structural Demand

Gold’s rally is being driven by a convergence of macro and geopolitical forces rather than a single headline catalyst.

Geopolitical uncertainty has intensified following President Donald Trump’s comments in Davos, which unsettled long-standing alliances and reignited tensions around Greenland and transatlantic trade. This erosion of diplomatic trust has accelerated the shift toward hard assets that sit outside political systems.

At the same time, the US dollar has weakened materially, with the Dollar Index slipping below key support levels. A softer dollar environment has historically been one of the most reliable tailwinds for gold, particularly when combined with risk-off capital flows.

Central bank behaviour continues to reinforce the trend. According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, citing sustained private-sector demand and continued diversification by emerging market central banks. Goldman expects central bank purchases to average around 60 tonnes per month in 2026, underscoring the structural nature of demand.

Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Daily Chart Signals Momentum

• Resistance: $5,000 remains the primary psychological barrier. A clean daily close above this level would open the door toward $5,133 and $5,295 extensions.
• Support: Initial support sits near $4,900, followed by stronger structure around $4,570 and $4,500.
• Trend bias: Bullish while price holds above $4,900 on a closing basis.

The absence of long upper wicks near current highs suggests that profit-taking has so far been controlled, reinforcing the view that this move is being driven by allocation flows rather than short-term speculation.

What to Watch in Gold as Asian Markets Open

With the Asian session approaching, liquidity conditions will be critical. Early Asia often provides the first test of whether a strong weekly close can translate into follow-through or whether the market opts for consolidation.

If buying interest holds above $4,980 during Asian hours, it would strengthen the case for a decisive test of $5,000 early in the week. Conversely, a shallow pullback toward $4,900 that finds buyers would still be consistent with a healthy bull trend.

Volatility is expected to remain elevated, but structurally, the path of least resistance continues to point higher.

Outlook: Gold’s Bull Market Remains Structurally Intact

Gold’s approach toward $5,000 is not occurring in isolation. It reflects a broader re-pricing of trust, risk, and monetary credibility across global markets. With Goldman Sachs lifting its forecast to $5,400, geopolitical tensions unresolved, and silver continuing to lead within the precious metals complex, the underlying environment remains supportive.

Unless there is a sharp reversal in geopolitical sentiment or an unexpected surge in US dollar strength, dips are likely to be viewed as consolidation rather than trend reversal. For now, gold remains firmly in price discovery mode, with the $5,000 level serving as the next major inflection point rather than an obvious ceiling.